It’s that time of year again.

Everybody loves the holidays where you get to open presents and fight with your relatives, but the Oscars for cinephiles who love the latter more than the former. This year, it’s proving that anything goes. I’ve read a number of articles about how this year the Oscars are at its most unpredictable, which makes this year even more juicy.

This year, I made a vow to watch as much of the Oscar nominees this year so I could have a fuller picture. While I wasn’t able to watch every nominee, I did watch all but one of the nominees for best picture. In the end, it was F1 that got away, but I honestly don’t feel too bad about it. For one, it’s 2.5 hours, and second of all, I doubt every Oscar voter is going to abide by the new rule that says you can only vote for the films in the Best Picture category that you’ve actually seen.

But I still feel like it’s going to be weird tonight. I have a feeling I’m going to be disappointed, but also I’m going to be blindsided in the best way possible. I’ve gotten accustomed to the politics of Hollywood Oscar campaigns, yet there’s also this nerdy part of me who wants total outliers to win. It’s a tough mix, so I thought I’d write this post to get it all out there.

Without further ado, here are my predictions for what I think will win vs. what I want to win at the 2026 Oscars.

Best Picture

Who I think will win: One Battle After Another — WINNER

Who I want to win: Sinners

Considering One Battle After Another deals with timely issues of immigration crackdowns and the battle between disillusioned older generations and the young, plus it’s directed by Paul Thomas Anderson who hasn’t won an Oscar yet, I have a feeling this is going to win. And I wouldn’t be raging mad if it won, either. PTA did a great job directing, it’s relevant without feeling preachy, and the performances in it are top-tier.

But considering Sinners is a wholly original film that defies genre, that spread through word-of-mouth and is one of those rare films that manages to make money and be artistically pleasing, I’m willing to throw my wager in for Sinners.

Best Actress

Who I think will win: Jessie Buckley as Agnes in Hamnet — WINNER

Who I want to win: Jessie Buckley as Agnes in Hamnet

Yeah, this is pretty much a no brainer. She sells every emotion like the rent was due and the landlord was banging on her door. No comments, no notes.

Best Actor

Who I think will win: Timothée Chalamet as Marty Mauser in Marty Supreme

Who I want to win: Michael B. Jordan as Stack/Smoke in Sinners — WINNER

I know Timothée Chalamet has fallen out of a lot of favor with many people because of his recent comments about ballet and opera, but I still think he has a good chance of winning. In despite of his outlandish stunts on the press tour, he plays the role of a self-torturing asshole insanely well. Not to mention he’s positioned himself as someone who wants to be “one of the greats,” so as many people hate him now, what better way to cap it off than with an Oscar win?

That being said, Michael B. Jordan is a true force in Sinners. Playing a twin should feel like a gimmick, but he plays the role of two people so seamlessly you’d forget you’re supposed to be watching more than one person. He puts so much humanity in Stack and Smoke that by the time the vampires come into the picture, you’re rooting for the twins to come out unscathed. They should be a standard horror movie protagonist, but Michael B. Jordan elevates it to something else entirely.

Best Supporting Actress

Who I think will win: Teyana Taylor as Perfidia in One Battle After Another

Who I want to win: Amy Madigan as Gladys in Weapons — WINNER

Teyana Taylor’s win at the Golden Globes scratched an itch for me with my predictions. She’s dynamic as hell in her role, as I wrote in my review, even if she’s in One Battle After Another for less than an hour. Although Amy Madigan had been leading the race with her other award wins, I’m a little bit wary about her chances, especially following after the heels of the Academy snubbing Demi Moore for her role as an older woman in a makeup heavy horror role.

That being said, I’ll be super hyped if Amy Madigan wins. She plays Aunt Gladys with such a menace it’s hard not to wish she was the villain in a horror film. She’s funny, eccentric, terrifying, and off-putting in all the right ways.

Best Supporting Actor

Who I think will win: Stellan Skarsgård as Gustav Borg in Sentimental Value

Who I want to win: Delroy Lindo as Delta Slim in Sinners OR Jacob Elordi as the Creature in Frankenstein

Oh boy…this one is going to be tough.

I learned to tamper my expectations once Stellan Skarsgård became the frontrunner of this category. Sure, Sean Penn has the BAFTA, but Skarsgård’s role in Sentimental Value as an aging film director looking to reconnect with his daughter is sublime to watch. You feel like you’re watching a real-life relative self-destruct in real time, and his chemistry with every other actress in the film should be studied. So I wouldn’t be mad if he won the Golden Statue.

But Delroy Lindo’s surprise nomination for his role as Delta Slim gave me pause. I was totally not expecting him to be given a nod, but it’s almost impossible to think he wasn’t in the running before after this. His scene where he recalls his friend being horrifically lynched is so powerfully done, and his acting helps provide a stable foundation for the rest of the characters. That being said, I’m still rooting for Jacob Elordi’s Creature, hence why this category is a tie for me.

Best Director

Who I think will win: Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another — WINNER

Who I want to win: Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

I’ve seen a few of Paul Thomas Anderson’s films, and they’ve never disappointed me. One Battle After Another feels like a culmination of all he’s done. The scale of the film feels so much bigger than anything he’s done before, yet you wouldn’t know that by the way he shoots the damn thing. The camera is confident and straightforward, like the screen is his own canvas. Just give the man his flowers already!

Best Original Song

Who I think will win: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters — WINNER

Who I want to win: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

No brainer. Next!

Best Original Score

Who I think will win: Ludwig Göransson for Sinners — WINNER

Who I want to win: Alexandre Desplate for Frankenstein

I feel like Ludwig Göransson is turning into the new Lin-Manuel Miranda of Hollywood, except this time his style of scoring fits with every project. One of the best parts of Sinners was the music, and with Göransson’s stellar track record with Oppenheimer, Tenet, and Black Panther, he stands a good chance at winning.

That being said, I do have a soft spot for Alexandre Desplat’s dark and operatic take on Frankenstein. It’s not somber from start to finish, but it hits at the aching of each character really well. So a small part of me is hoping he’ll win.

Best Animated Film

Who I think will win: KPop Demon Hunters — WINNER

Who I want to win: KPop Demon Hunters

No brainer. Although I’ve heard Little Amelie is good.

Best International Film

Who I think will win: The Secret Agent (Brazil)

Who I want to win: The Secret Agent (Brazil)

The Secret Agent is one of those films that catches you off guard in the best of ways, especially when it comes to this category. For a while it seemed like It Was Just An Accident was going to be the frontrunner, but now Kleber Mendonça Filho’s magical realist version of 1970s authoritarian Brazil is now dominating. I can totally see it winning.

Best Casting

Who I think will win: Sinners

Who I want to win: Sinners

This is a brand new category for the Oscars this year, and once again, Sinners stands a high chance at taking it. The chemistry between each cast member, from Jack O’Connell to Michael B. Jordan to Miles Caton to Wunmi Mosaku to Delroy Lindo is top notch. No one feels out of place in the film’s setting. Everyone is perfectly cast. This should be the golden standard for the category going further.

Best Sound

Who I think will win: Sirât

Who I want to win: Sirât

Full disclosure, I have no idea who’s going to win in this category. But Sirât’s sound design made me feel like I was descending into the depths of hell itself, so hoping it wins!

Best Cinematography

Who I think will win: Sinners — WINNER

Who I want to win: Train Dreams

And here’s another category I wasn’t expecting to fret about. Autumn Durald Arkapaw’s recreation of 1930s Mississippi feels spot on, and she gets every detail right. However, the same could also go for Train Dreams, which looks at the Pacific Northwest from the late 19th century onward. The really tricky thing about this category is that the cinematography of both these films complement the stories they’re telling. So it’s still up in the air.

Best Original Screenplay

Who I think will win: Sinners — WINNER

Who I want to win: Sinners

Much like how Get Out won Best Original Screenplay in 2018 for a story about Black alienation in modern society, I feel like Sinners stands a good chance of winning this prize. Plus, it’s a genre-defying film that still manages to have a compelling story. That’s damn impressive.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Who I think will win: Hamnet

Who I want to win: Frankenstein

I haven’t read Maggie O’Farrell’s literary basis for Hamnet, but I have read Frankenstein. And while I want Guillermo del Toro to win another Oscar, part of me is a little unsure with how the film dialed down with some of the gnarled aspects of the Creature. So I think this might go to Hamnet, sorry GDT!

Best Live Action Short Film

Who I think will win: The Singers — WINNER (TIED WITH TWO PEOPLE EXCHANGING SALIVA)

Who I want to win: Jane Austen’s Period Drama

The Singers and Jane Austen’s Period Drama are both radically different, but I’d still think they’d look good with a golden trophy. That being said, light-hearted comedies don’t really tend to do well at the Oscars, so I think the complicated masculinities of The Singers might win. The film had me mesmerized.

Best Animated Short Film

Who I think will win: Retirement Plan

Who I want to win: Retirement Plan

I love Retirement Plan. It’s simply animated, but it’s simple in an evocative way. Plus, it’s funny and Irish.

Best Documentary Short Film

Who I think will win: The Devil Is Busy

Who I want to win: The Devil Is Busy

I saw The Devil Is Busy last year at the 40th annual SBIFF, and it was awe-inspiring and terrifying at the same time. People like Tracci who ensure the safety of women seeking abortions and other reproductive care deserve all the medals in the world, and then some.

Best Visual Effects

Who I think will win: Sinners

Who I want to win: Sinners

I don’t really know about this one, but I guess it’s got to go to Sinners.

Best Production Design

Who I think will win: Sinners

Who I want to win: Sinners

Yeah, I wouldn’t say Sinners is a sure bet, considering Frankenstein is also a part of that category, but it’d be hard to deny that Sinners wouldn’t be the film it is without the meticulous production design.

Best Film Editing

Who I think will win: One Battle After Another — WINNER

Who I want to win: One Battle After Another

One Battle After Another is a very chaotic film, but one that would not be complete without fantastic editing.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Who I think will win: Frankenstein — WINNER

Who I want to win: Frankenstein

I’m sorry, how do you not award a prize to the team responsible for turning Jacob Elordi into the Creature?

Best Costume Design

Who I think will win: Sinners

Who I want to win: Sinners OR Frankenstein — FRANKENSTEIN WINNER

Since both are period pieces, they’d have a really good chance, especially with Ruth E. Carter and Kate Hawley behind the wheel of each film respectively. But still, I think it’s safe to say it’s going to Sinners.

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Wow, that was a lot. Obviously I might look like an idiot tomorrow night, but I hope you enjoyed reading my projections! Whatever happens, I’ll still be looking forward to see Conan O’Brien tear it up like it normally does, and to bring this wonderful saga to a close.